Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -1200 CHSO +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +25 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -14.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 169.4 (-34.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -16.5 (+8.5) | 161.9 (-26.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -12.8 (+12.2) | 157.0 (-22.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -13.0 (+12.0) | 158.8 (-23.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -14.8 (+10.2) | 162.1 (-27.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | HPU 84 – 82 CHSO |
| Feb 20, 2025 | HPU 83 – 60 CHSO |
| Jan 9, 2025 | HPU 93 – 79 CHSO |
| Feb 24, 2024 | HPU 74 – 59 CHSO |
| Jan 21, 2024 | HPU 86 – 79 CHSO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 6-10 |
| Home | 17-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-2 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 81.0 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#83) | -3.8 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#106) | -1.36 (#285) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.64 (#119) | -1.70 (#281) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#115) | 0.441 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | CHSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.77 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 12.4% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 31.8% |
Game Analysis
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