Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | CARK -650 UNA +470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +21 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -14.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.3 (-7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -12.4 (+8.6) | 146.3 (-5.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -10.2 (+10.8) | 148.3 (-7.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -13.2 (+7.8) | 143.5 (-2.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -12.4 (+8.6) | 144.6 (-3.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | CARK 72 – 65 UNA |
| Feb 25, 2025 | UNA 93 – 70 CARK |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UNA 94 – 65 CARK |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNA 82 – 78 CARK |
| Jan 7, 2024 | CARK 84 – 81 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-1 | 5-8 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#185) | -12.2 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#228) | -1.85 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#231) | -2.64 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#225) | 0.407 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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