Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UNA -2000 CARK +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +29 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UNA -16.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -12.1 (+16.9) | 149.8 (+9.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -12.8 (+16.2) | 149.5 (+9.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -11.9 (+17.1) | 146.7 (+12.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -12.5 (+16.5) | 147.9 (+11.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 10, 2026 | CARK 72 – 65 UNA |
| Feb 5, 2026 | CARK 81 – 60 UNA |
| Feb 25, 2025 | UNA 93 – 70 CARK |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UNA 82 – 78 CARK |
| Jan 7, 2024 | CARK 84 – 81 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 16-1 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-10 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#136) | -11.6 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#163) | -2.90 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#156) | -3.38 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.509 (#163) | 0.362 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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