Betting Lines
| Spread | UTU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UTU -120 UTA +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +3 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | UTU -0.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+34.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTU -0.3 (+2.7) | 136.1 (+34.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -1.2 (+4.2) | 136.1 (+34.9) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTU -0.8 (+2.2) | 135.1 (+35.9) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTU -0.5 (+2.5) | 136.1 (+34.9) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTA 63 – 50 UTU |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UTA 56 – 52 UTU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTA 73 – 71 UTU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UTU 74 – 62 UTA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTA 89 – 78 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#203) | 0.7 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#153) | 0.72 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#157) | 0.74 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#130) | 0.538 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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