Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | UTU +150 UTA -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTU +12 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -2.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-19.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -1.8 (+13.8) | 152.1 (-16.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -3.0 (+15.0) | 150.0 (-14.0) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -2.2 (+14.2) | 148.6 (-12.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -3.2 (+15.2) | 151.4 (-15.4) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTA 63 – 50 UTU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTU 87 – 84 UTA |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UTA 56 – 52 UTU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTA 73 – 71 UTU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTA 89 – 78 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-26 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 6-10 |
| Home | 5-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 0-16 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 75.7 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#294) | -1.3 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#327) | -0.64 (#227) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#310) | -0.66 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#323) | 0.477 (#209) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 25.9% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 32.4% |
Game Analysis
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