We're only making plans for Nigel. "Making Plans for Nigel" - XTC
Western Athletic Conference · College Park Center · February 20, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread UTA -4.5 Home covered
O/U 140.5 Under
Money UTA -225 / UTU +185
Model Predictions
Spread Total UTA win
Actual UTA +13 113 Won
Massey UTA -3.7 (+9.3)
Massey Totals 141.0 (-28.0)
Bradley-Terry 55%
Weighted B-T 58%
Efficiency Plus ML UTA -3.4 (+9.6) 141.3 (-28.3) 66%
Baseline Tuned ML UTA -2.3 (+10.7) 139.8 (-26.8) 62%
Baseline ML UTA -1.7 (+11.3) 138.8 (-25.8) 53%
Baseline Plus ML UTA -2.2 (+10.8) 140.4 (-27.4) 58%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 6, 2026 UTU 8784 UTA
Jan 16, 2026 UTA 5652 UTU
Feb 1, 2025 UTA 7371 UTU
Jan 10, 2025 UTU 7462 UTA
Feb 24, 2024 UTA 8978 UTU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UTA UTU
Overall 18-14 19-15
Conference 9-9 11-7
Home 9-4 11-3
Away 8-8 6-10
Neutral 1-2 2-2
Last 5 0-5 5-0
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.7 74.7
Avg Pts Against 67.8 77.0
Massey -0.7 (#176) -1.5 (#190)
Bradley-Terry 0.25 (#147) 0.55 (#110)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.33 (#144) 0.59 (#124)
RPI 0.513 (#149) 0.528 (#116)
Shooting & Four Factors UTA UTU
FG% 44.0% 46.2%
3PT% 30.4% 34.7%
REB / G 35.1 33.4
OREB / G 11.3 10.0
AST / TO 0.81 1.15
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.8% 52.7%
TOV% 21.1% 17.7%
ORB% 34.7% 29.1%
FT Rate 30.7% 20.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.1% 50.3%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 17.3%
DRB% 70.2% 65.3%
Opp FT Rate 30.6% 24.4%

Game Analysis

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