Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | UTA -225 UTU +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +13 | 113 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -3.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (-28.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -2.2 (+10.8) | 140.4 (-27.4) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -3.4 (+9.6) | 141.3 (-28.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -2.3 (+10.7) | 139.8 (-26.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -1.7 (+11.3) | 138.8 (-25.8) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTU 87 – 84 UTA |
| Jan 16, 2026 | UTA 56 – 52 UTU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTA 73 – 71 UTU |
| Jan 10, 2025 | UTU 74 – 62 UTA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | UTA 89 – 78 UTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-8 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.7 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#176) | -1.5 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#147) | 0.55 (#110) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#144) | 0.59 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#149) | 0.528 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | UTU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 21.1% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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