Betting Lines
| Spread | MRMK -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MSM +114 MRMK -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRMK +17 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | MRMK -3.1 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.7 (+24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRMK -2.2 (-14.8) | 134.0 (+23.0) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRMK -3.3 (-13.7) | 129.9 (+27.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRMK -2.9 (-14.1) | 131.3 (+25.7) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRMK -3.8 (-13.2) | 131.4 (+25.6) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 2, 2026 | MRMK 75 – 65 MSM |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MSM 57 – 55 MRMK |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MSM 66 – 58 MRMK |
| Feb 4, 2022 | MSM 69 – 53 MRMK |
| Jan 17, 2022 | MSM 57 – 50 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 17-3 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-0 |
| Away | 7-11 | 9-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#305) | -3.7 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#274) | 0.09 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#274) | 0.01 (#164) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#263) | 0.527 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 28.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 58.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 28.4% |
Game Analysis
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