Betting Lines
| Spread | MSM -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 117.5 Over |
| Money | MSM -270 MRMK +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSM +16 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | MSM -7.6 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSM -6.7 (+9.3) | 124.1 (-2.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSM -7.2 (+8.8) | 123.8 (-1.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSM -5.3 (+10.7) | 126.9 (-4.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSM -5.9 (+10.1) | 124.3 (-2.3) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | MRMK 87 – 70 MSM |
| Jan 2, 2026 | MRMK 75 – 65 MSM |
| Mar 15, 2025 | MSM 57 – 55 MRMK |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MSM 66 – 58 MRMK |
| Jan 17, 2022 | MSM 57 – 50 MRMK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSM | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-16 | 14-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-11 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.4 | 58.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.4 | 62.8 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#261) | -9.6 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.18 (#271) | -1.85 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#276) | -2.35 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#236) | 0.427 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSM | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 39.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 27.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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