Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -650 NCAT +470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +16 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -8.9 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -8.6 (+7.4) | 152.4 (-12.4) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -10.1 (+5.9) | 150.6 (-10.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -7.9 (+8.1) | 148.5 (-8.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -7.6 (+8.4) | 150.4 (-10.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | COFC 74 – 61 NCAT |
| Feb 15, 2025 | COFC 69 – 59 NCAT |
| Feb 6, 2025 | COFC 66 – 63 NCAT |
| Feb 9, 2024 | COFC 80 – 58 NCAT |
| Jan 4, 2023 | COFC 92 – 79 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-4 | 6-6 |
| Away | 8-4 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#169) | -6.0 (#259) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#108) | -1.16 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#128) | -1.65 (#279) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#89) | 0.444 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.5% | 33.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.7% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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