Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +340 COFC -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +10 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | COFC -6.9 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-31.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -6.2 (-3.8) | 153.7 (-25.7) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -7.8 (-2.2) | 151.9 (-23.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -6.0 (-4.0) | 150.4 (-22.4) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -6.2 (-3.8) | 152.4 (-24.4) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | COFC 74 – 61 NCAT |
| Feb 6, 2026 | COFC 78 – 62 NCAT |
| Feb 6, 2025 | COFC 66 – 63 NCAT |
| Feb 9, 2024 | COFC 80 – 58 NCAT |
| Jan 4, 2023 | COFC 92 – 79 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 5-9 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-15 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#322) | -0.1 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#347) | 0.91 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.20 (#350) | 0.85 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#339) | 0.552 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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