Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -4000 NCAT +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +22 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -17.9 (+4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -15.0 (+7.0) | 155.5 (-17.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -17.9 (+4.1) | 155.4 (-17.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -13.9 (+8.1) | 153.8 (-15.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -15.1 (+6.9) | 154.7 (-16.7) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | COFC 74 – 61 NCAT |
| Feb 6, 2026 | COFC 78 – 62 NCAT |
| Feb 15, 2025 | COFC 69 – 59 NCAT |
| Feb 6, 2025 | COFC 66 – 63 NCAT |
| Jan 4, 2023 | COFC 92 – 79 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-2 | 4-7 |
| Away | 10-2 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#127) | -12.1 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#111) | -1.69 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.98 (#114) | -2.22 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#102) | 0.432 (#300) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 40.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.