Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +170 COFC -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +13 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | COFC -3.3 (-9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -3.3 (-9.7) | 144.5 (-9.5) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -4.1 (-8.9) | 145.7 (-10.7) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -3.3 (-9.7) | 142.2 (-7.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -3.3 (-9.7) | 142.8 (-7.8) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | COFC 78 – 62 NCAT |
| Feb 15, 2025 | COFC 69 – 59 NCAT |
| Feb 6, 2025 | COFC 66 – 63 NCAT |
| Feb 9, 2024 | COFC 80 – 58 NCAT |
| Jan 4, 2023 | COFC 92 – 79 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 14-4 |
| Home | 6-6 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 73.9 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#270) | -0.5 (#171) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#273) | 0.43 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#290) | 0.27 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#282) | 0.531 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.88 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.6% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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