Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | COFC -5000 NCAT +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COFC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +3 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | COFC -15.9 (-12.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.0 (-34.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -12.4 (-9.4) | 159.3 (-30.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -15.6 (-12.6) | 159.1 (-30.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -11.6 (-8.6) | 155.5 (-26.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -12.7 (-9.7) | 157.3 (-28.3) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | COFC 74 – 61 NCAT |
| Feb 6, 2026 | COFC 78 – 62 NCAT |
| Feb 15, 2025 | COFC 69 – 59 NCAT |
| Feb 9, 2024 | COFC 80 – 58 NCAT |
| Jan 4, 2023 | COFC 92 – 79 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COFC | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 1.0 (#148) | -11.7 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#93) | -2.91 (#354) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#104) | -3.35 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#75) | 0.375 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COFC | NCAT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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