Betting Lines
| Spread | COFC -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | NCAT +450 COFC -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COFC +13 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | COFC -9.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COFC -8.9 (-4.1) | 151.3 (+19.7) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COFC -9.8 (-3.2) | 154.6 (+16.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COFC -9.4 (-3.6) | 151.2 (+19.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COFC -8.6 (-4.4) | 152.8 (+18.2) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | COFC 74 – 61 NCAT |
| Feb 6, 2026 | COFC 78 – 62 NCAT |
| Feb 15, 2025 | COFC 69 – 59 NCAT |
| Feb 6, 2025 | COFC 66 – 63 NCAT |
| Feb 9, 2024 | COFC 80 – 58 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 31-4 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 8-5 | 17-1 |
| Away | 4-10 | 11-2 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 79.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#284) | 7.5 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#248) | 2.99 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#255) | 3.30 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#262) | 0.642 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | COFC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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