Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -360 NAU +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +6 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -10.4 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -9.0 (-15.0) | 140.8 (+11.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -8.9 (-14.9) | 137.4 (+14.6) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -8.3 (-14.3) | 139.5 (+12.5) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -8.0 (-14.0) | 139.8 (+12.2) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | IDST 73 – 65 NAU |
| Jan 11, 2026 | IDST 81 – 79 NAU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NAU 82 – 79 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | IDST 68 – 60 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#194) | -9.0 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#240) | -1.67 (#312) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#226) | -1.99 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#256) | 0.393 (#349) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.1% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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