Betting Lines
| Spread | NAU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | NAU -185 IDST +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +5 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | NAU -0.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (-1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAU -1.9 (-6.9) | 140.9 (-1.9) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAU -0.1 (-5.1) | 140.5 (-1.5) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAU -1.1 (-6.1) | 141.9 (-2.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAU -0.8 (-5.8) | 142.5 (-3.5) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | IDST 73 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | NAU 79 – 73 IDST |
| Jan 11, 2026 | IDST 81 – 79 NAU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NAU 82 – 79 IDST |
| Mar 10, 2024 | IDST 68 – 60 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-8 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#242) | -0.3 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#218) | -1.54 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#230) | -1.67 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#230) | 0.433 (#292) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 38.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 14.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 43.5% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 39.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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