I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
Big Sky Conference · J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · January 11, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread IDST -4.5 Home covered
O/U 139.5 Over
Money NAU +170 / IDST -205
Model Predictions
Spread Total NAU win
Actual IDST +2 160 Lost
Massey IDST -5.7 (+3.7)
Massey Totals 138.0 (+22.0)
Bradley-Terry 32%
Weighted B-T 26%
Efficiency Plus ML IDST -5.5 (+3.5) 137.6 (+22.4) 31%
Baseline Tuned ML IDST -4.3 (+2.3) 135.8 (+24.2) 35%
Baseline ML IDST -4.2 (+2.2) 137.4 (+22.6) 34%
Baseline Plus ML IDST -3.6 (+1.6) 137.8 (+22.2) 38%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 8, 2026 IDST 7365 NAU
Feb 6, 2026 NAU 7973 IDST
Mar 4, 2025 NAU 8279 IDST
Jan 3, 2025 IDST 7267 NAU
Mar 10, 2024 IDST 6860 NAU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NAU IDST
Overall 10-22 13-20
Conference 4-14 5-13
Home 9-7 8-6
Away 1-13 3-12
Neutral 0-2 2-2
Last 5 1-4 1-4
Streak L5 L1
Avg Pts For 68.1 73.6
Avg Pts Against 77.6 77.6
Massey -8.0 (#283) 1.2 (#148)
Bradley-Terry -1.75 (#316) -0.39 (#207)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.08 (#300) -0.34 (#192)
RPI 0.389 (#343) 0.466 (#238)
Shooting & Four Factors NAU IDST
FG% 43.6% 45.9%
3PT% 34.4% 36.6%
REB / G 32.3 32.2
OREB / G 8.5 10.7
AST / TO 1.02 1.05
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.3% 54.4%
TOV% 17.3% 18.4%
ORB% 24.3% 34.0%
FT Rate 18.4% 29.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.9% 52.1%
Opp TOV% 17.0% 16.2%
DRB% 68.1% 67.7%
Opp FT Rate 22.2% 27.6%

Game Analysis

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