Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | NAU +170 IDST -205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +2 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -5.7 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (+22.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -3.6 (+1.6) | 137.8 (+22.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -5.5 (+3.5) | 137.6 (+22.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -4.3 (+2.3) | 135.8 (+24.2) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -4.2 (+2.2) | 137.4 (+22.6) | 34% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | IDST 73 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | NAU 79 – 73 IDST |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NAU 82 – 79 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | IDST 68 – 60 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 1-13 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 73.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#283) | 1.2 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#316) | -0.39 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#300) | -0.34 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.389 (#343) | 0.466 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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