I'm gonna tell you how it's gonna be. "Not Fade Away"-The Rolling Stones
Big Sky Conference · Reed Gym · March 4, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread IDST -6.5 Away covered
O/U 143.5 Over
Money IDST -280 / NAU +230
Model Predictions
Spread Total IDST win
Actual NAU +3 161 Lost
Massey IDST -6.9 (-9.9)
Massey Totals 142.2 (+18.8)
Bradley-Terry 71%
Weighted B-T 78%
Efficiency Plus ML IDST -4.4 (-7.4) 139.1 (+21.9) 70%
Baseline Tuned ML IDST -5.6 (-8.6) 140.5 (+20.5) 73%
Baseline ML IDST -5.0 (-8.0) 141.3 (+19.7) 73%
Baseline Plus ML IDST -5.6 (-8.6) 140.7 (+20.3) 75%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 8, 2026 IDST 7365 NAU
Feb 6, 2026 NAU 7973 IDST
Jan 11, 2026 IDST 8179 NAU
Jan 3, 2025 IDST 7267 NAU
Mar 10, 2024 IDST 6860 NAU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings IDST NAU
Overall 15-15 18-16
Conference 10-8 8-10
Home 10-4 10-5
Away 5-10 7-8
Neutral 0-1 1-3
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 72.2 72.5
Avg Pts Against 72.1 73.3
Massey -1.2 (#179) -4.8 (#244)
Bradley-Terry -0.66 (#229) -1.00 (#261)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.63 (#216) -1.21 (#260)
RPI 0.463 (#259) 0.442 (#293)
Shooting & Four Factors IDST NAU
FG% 42.3% 43.4%
3PT% 32.1% 33.9%
REB / G 37.3 36.9
OREB / G 13.6 12.0
AST / TO 1.10 1.36
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.2% 49.9%
TOV% 16.7% 15.1%
ORB% 38.4% 32.3%
FT Rate 25.9% 19.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.9% 53.6%
Opp TOV% 17.8% 14.8%
DRB% 73.6% 76.4%
Opp FT Rate 23.4% 24.1%

Game Analysis

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