Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | IDST -280 NAU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAU +3 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -6.9 (-9.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+18.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -5.6 (-8.6) | 140.7 (+20.3) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -4.4 (-7.4) | 139.1 (+21.9) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -5.6 (-8.6) | 140.5 (+20.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -5.0 (-8.0) | 141.3 (+19.7) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | IDST 73 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | NAU 79 – 73 IDST |
| Jan 11, 2026 | IDST 81 – 79 NAU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | IDST 68 – 60 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-15 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#179) | -4.8 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#229) | -1.00 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#216) | -1.21 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#259) | 0.442 (#293) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 38.4% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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