Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | IDST -205 NAU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +8 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | IDST -5.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-3.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -3.2 (+4.8) | 139.7 (-1.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -4.6 (+3.4) | 136.7 (+1.3) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -4.1 (+3.9) | 139.7 (-1.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -3.7 (+4.3) | 141.7 (-3.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | NAU 79 – 73 IDST |
| Jan 11, 2026 | IDST 81 – 79 NAU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NAU 82 – 79 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 NAU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | IDST 68 – 60 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#232) | -9.4 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#269) | -1.62 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#253) | -1.87 (#300) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#283) | 0.405 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 28.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 23.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.9% | 57.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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