Betting Lines
| Spread | IDST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | NAU +163 IDST -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +8 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | IDST -4.6 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDST -3.0 (-5.0) | 142.0 (-14.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -3.5 (-4.5) | 138.4 (-10.4) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDST -3.1 (-4.9) | 140.1 (-12.1) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IDST -2.7 (-5.3) | 142.1 (-14.1) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | IDST 73 – 65 NAU |
| Feb 6, 2026 | NAU 79 – 73 IDST |
| Jan 11, 2026 | IDST 81 – 79 NAU |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NAU 82 – 79 IDST |
| Jan 3, 2025 | IDST 72 – 67 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-12 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -9.7 (#321) | -5.1 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#235) | -1.10 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#263) | -1.14 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#244) | 0.424 (#318) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAU | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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