Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | CSUF -265 UCR +215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +6 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | CSUF -8.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -6.7 (-0.7) | 150.4 (-0.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -5.5 (+0.5) | 151.7 (-1.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -7.1 (-1.1) | 149.2 (+0.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -6.4 (-0.4) | 150.0 (-0.0) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCR 81 – 72 CSUF |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCR 64 – 59 CSUF |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCR 75 – 68 CSUF |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCR 84 – 74 CSUF |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UCR 81 – 73 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-15 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-7 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.2 | 79.1 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#200) | -7.9 (#288) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#203) | -0.99 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#183) | -1.00 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.490 (#202) | 0.467 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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