Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | CSUF -111 UCR -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +8 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUF -3.5 (-11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -1.7 (-9.7) | 132.7 (+21.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -1.5 (-9.5) | 132.5 (+21.5) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -2.1 (-10.1) | 131.2 (+22.8) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -2.0 (-10.0) | 132.3 (+21.7) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | CSUF 78 – 72 UCR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCR 81 – 72 CSUF |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCR 64 – 59 CSUF |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCR 75 – 68 CSUF |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCR 84 – 74 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#240) | -4.0 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.32 (#203) | -0.70 (#248) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#218) | -0.79 (#238) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#183) | 0.458 (#254) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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