Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | CSUF +1100 UCR -2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CSUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +5 | 123 | Lost |
| Massey | UCR -12.6 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-24.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -12.3 (+7.3) | 146.2 (-23.2) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -11.5 (+6.5) | 146.2 (-23.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -11.9 (+6.9) | 146.8 (-23.8) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -12.1 (+7.1) | 147.9 (-24.9) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | CSUF 78 – 72 UCR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCR 81 – 72 CSUF |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCR 75 – 68 CSUF |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCR 84 – 74 CSUF |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UCR 81 – 73 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CSUF | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 14-6 |
| Home | 4-11 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-15 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L12 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.3 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -14.7 (#354) | 1.2 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#334) | 1.12 (#85) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#333) | 0.93 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#337) | 0.567 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CSUF | UCR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.6% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.2% | 49.6% |
| TOV% | 21.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.7% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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