Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | UCR +130 CSUF -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +9 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | CSUF -3.0 (+12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -2.6 (+11.6) | 153.9 (-0.9) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -0.7 (+9.7) | 152.7 (+0.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -3.1 (+12.1) | 151.8 (+1.2) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -3.2 (+12.2) | 152.3 (+0.7) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | CSUF 78 – 72 UCR |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCR 64 – 59 CSUF |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCR 75 – 68 CSUF |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCR 84 – 74 CSUF |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UCR 81 – 73 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 12-8 |
| Home | 7-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-15 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#295) | -2.1 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.02 (#255) | -0.28 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#241) | -0.13 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#225) | 0.498 (#179) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 25.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 27.4% |
Game Analysis
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