Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -550 CSUF +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -12.2 (-5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -8.8 (-1.8) | 133.3 (+9.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -8.0 (-1.0) | 134.4 (+8.6) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -8.4 (-1.4) | 133.6 (+9.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -8.5 (-1.5) | 134.4 (+8.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | CSUF 78 – 72 UCR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCR 81 – 72 CSUF |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCR 64 – 59 CSUF |
| Mar 8, 2024 | UCR 84 – 74 CSUF |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UCR 81 – 73 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 1-19 |
| Home | 14-1 | 4-11 |
| Away | 7-11 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 78.7 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#183) | -8.8 (#313) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.07 (#83) | -1.38 (#287) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#140) | -2.35 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#69) | 0.454 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 38.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 25.2% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 42.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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