Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -163 CSUF +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -3.2 (+6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (+24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -2.3 (+7.7) | 135.8 (+22.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -2.9 (+7.1) | 134.7 (+23.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -2.3 (+7.7) | 134.7 (+23.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -2.1 (+7.9) | 135.5 (+22.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | CSUF 78 – 72 UCR |
| Jan 18, 2026 | UCR 81 – 72 CSUF |
| Mar 9, 2025 | UCR 64 – 59 CSUF |
| Dec 8, 2024 | UCR 75 – 68 CSUF |
| Feb 16, 2024 | UCR 81 – 73 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 10-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-12 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 70.4 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#234) | -3.6 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#231) | -0.40 (#216) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#226) | -0.61 (#223) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#236) | 0.487 (#205) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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