Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | DAV -600 LUC +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +20 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -16.1 (+3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+6.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -11.8 (+8.2) | 139.7 (+8.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -11.0 (+9.0) | 138.7 (+9.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -13.0 (+7.0) | 136.8 (+11.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -12.3 (+7.7) | 139.5 (+8.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | DAV 64 – 59 LUC |
| Jan 8, 2026 | DAV 79 – 64 LUC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | LUC 82 – 72 DAV |
| Feb 19, 2025 | LUC 77 – 69 DAV |
| Mar 7, 2024 | LUC 69 – 59 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-7 | 6-10 |
| Away | 7-5 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#109) | -9.0 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#98) | -1.55 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#100) | -2.13 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.552 (#77) | 0.421 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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