Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | LUC -230 DAV +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -3.6 (+6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (+11.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -3.4 (+6.6) | 141.7 (+12.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -4.3 (+5.7) | 140.3 (+13.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -3.5 (+6.5) | 142.5 (+11.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -3.6 (+6.4) | 143.0 (+11.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | DAV 64 – 59 LUC |
| Feb 6, 2026 | DAV 84 – 64 LUC |
| Jan 8, 2026 | DAV 79 – 64 LUC |
| Feb 19, 2025 | LUC 77 – 69 DAV |
| Mar 7, 2024 | LUC 69 – 59 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 17-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-6 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#134) | 1.3 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#106) | 0.13 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.99 (#106) | 0.40 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#109) | 0.507 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.55 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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