Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | DAV -250 LUC +205 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +5 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -10.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -8.7 (-3.7) | 129.1 (-6.1) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -7.4 (-2.4) | 130.0 (-7.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -8.6 (-3.6) | 129.6 (-6.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -8.4 (-3.4) | 128.9 (-5.9) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | DAV 84 – 64 LUC |
| Jan 8, 2026 | DAV 79 – 64 LUC |
| Mar 6, 2025 | LUC 82 – 72 DAV |
| Feb 19, 2025 | LUC 77 – 69 DAV |
| Mar 7, 2024 | LUC 69 – 59 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-7 | 6-10 |
| Away | 7-5 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#112) | -6.9 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#111) | -1.09 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#112) | -1.48 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#92) | 0.440 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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