Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -218 W&M +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +7 | 163 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -4.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (+7.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -6.4 (-13.4) | 151.0 (+12.0) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -4.4 (-11.4) | 149.4 (+13.6) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -3.8 (-10.8) | 149.5 (+13.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -5.6 (-12.6) | 151.0 (+12.0) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | W&M 77 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 24, 2025 | UNCW 79 – 70 W&M |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 74 W&M |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UNCW 81 – 65 W&M |
| Feb 4, 2023 | UNCW 70 – 63 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 12-2 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.1 | 78.9 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#117) | 2.4 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.36 (#72) | 0.32 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#84) | 0.34 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#63) | 0.539 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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