Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | W&M -142 UNCW +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +7 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | W&M -3.4 (+3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -1.0 (+6.0) | 143.2 (+3.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | W&M -0.2 (+6.8) | 144.8 (+2.2) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -1.5 (+5.5) | 142.9 (+4.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -1.9 (+5.1) | 144.4 (+2.6) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | W&M 85 – 78 UNCW |
| Feb 24, 2025 | UNCW 79 – 70 W&M |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 74 W&M |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UNCW 81 – 65 W&M |
| Feb 4, 2023 | UNCW 70 – 63 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 27-7 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 11-2 | 15-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 12-2 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 74.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.9 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#123) | 2.9 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#126) | 1.36 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#133) | 1.60 (#83) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#96) | 0.549 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 31.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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