Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -280 W&M +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +11 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -5.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -6.8 (+4.2) | 152.0 (+7.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -4.1 (+6.9) | 148.3 (+10.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -4.1 (+6.9) | 150.3 (+8.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -4.5 (+6.5) | 149.3 (+9.7) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | W&M 85 – 78 UNCW |
| Jan 23, 2026 | W&M 77 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 24, 2025 | UNCW 79 – 70 W&M |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UNCW 81 – 65 W&M |
| Feb 4, 2023 | UNCW 70 – 63 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-3 | 12-2 |
| Away | 9-4 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 78.5 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#152) | -1.1 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#139) | 0.04 (#179) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#147) | 0.36 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#136) | 0.503 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 35.4% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.1% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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