Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | W&M +275 UNCW -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +7 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -5.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -6.4 (-0.6) | 130.4 (+2.6) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -5.7 (-1.3) | 134.8 (-1.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -5.5 (-1.5) | 135.1 (-2.1) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -5.7 (-1.3) | 134.3 (-1.3) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | W&M 85 – 78 UNCW |
| Jan 23, 2026 | W&M 77 – 70 UNCW |
| Feb 24, 2025 | UNCW 79 – 70 W&M |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 74 W&M |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UNCW 81 – 65 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 1-14 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#311) | 0.7 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.03 (#275) | 1.20 (#75) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.58 (#289) | 1.41 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#245) | 0.553 (#84) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 30.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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