Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | W&M +135 UNCW -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +9 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCW -1.6 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -2.7 (-6.3) | 150.9 (-1.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -0.8 (-8.2) | 152.0 (-3.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -0.8 (-8.2) | 153.0 (-4.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -1.0 (-8.0) | 152.8 (-3.8) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 6, 2026 | W&M 85 – 78 UNCW |
| Jan 23, 2026 | W&M 77 – 70 UNCW |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNCW 85 – 74 W&M |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UNCW 81 – 65 W&M |
| Feb 4, 2023 | UNCW 70 – 63 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-2 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#210) | 2.1 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#167) | 0.68 (#114) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#164) | 0.60 (#124) |
| RPI | 0.520 (#144) | 0.543 (#95) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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