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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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87–37 on winners spread MAE 8.4 124 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Mount St. Mary's @ Siena	+7.8	132.1	80%	57–72	✓
Niagara @ Rider	+4.5	127.7	61%	62–65	✓
Saint Peter's @ Marist	+2.7	126.6	55%	61–57	✗
Iona @ Manhattan	-12.6	140.3	15%	84–76	✓
Canisius @ Fairfield	+2.4	134.8	63%	58–67	✓
Villanova @ St. John's	+5.7	147.0	64%	57–49	✗
VCU @ Richmond	+1.4	132.5	43%	74–62	✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Saint Francis	+4.3	138.1	70%	61–87	✓
Stonehill @ Long Island University	-7.1	140.9	21%	73–66	✓
Central Connecticut @ Wagner	+5.7	123.7	68%	50–72	✓
Sacred Heart @ Fairleigh Dickinson	+4.7	153.7	62%	92–85	✗
Toledo @ Buffalo	-1.7	161.1	43%	86–77	✓
Boise State @ New Mexico	+1.0	145.7	57%	79–81	✓
Georgetown @ Xavier	+18.0	156.2	89%	82–95	✓
Miami @ Duke	+6.1	144.7	78%	66–68	✓
Charleston @ Northeastern	-8.7	144.3	20%	87–61	✓
Ole Miss @ Arkansas	+10.3	134.3	84%	57–69	✓
UCF @ South Florida	-6.1	137.1	30%	72–85	✗
Syracuse @ Georgia Tech	-0.9	144.2	49%	80–63	✓
George Mason @ Rhode Island	-1.9	137.2	44%	79–72	✓
Detroit Mercy @ IU Indianapolis	-12.4	150.7	14%	89–77	✓
Dayton @ George Washington	-5.1	134.8	27%	69–76	✗
TCU @ Kansas	+7.1	149.0	81%	83–60	✗
Loyola Maryland @ Boston University	+7.9	127.5	78%	53–66	✓
New Hampshire @ UMBC	+6.2	139.9	70%	69–80	✓
Vanderbilt @ Georgia	+1.0	140.6	56%	85–82	✗
Massachusetts @ Saint Joseph's	+0.3	146.3	52%	68–74	✓
The Citadel @ VMI	+0.8	144.2	52%	60–52	✗
UNC Wilmington @ Stony Brook	-5.9	127.0	23%	62–51	✓
Navy @ Army	+1.5	139.6	55%	77–71	✗
UCLA @ Arizona	-0.3	146.8	66%	52–58	✗
Virginia @ Wake Forest	-1.3	134.1	51%	76–67	✓
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State	-0.3	124.4	61%	59–61	✗
Texas Tech @ Kansas State	+6.5	143.7	77%	58–68	✓
Holy Cross @ Bucknell	+6.6	133.9	69%	80–73	✗
American University @ Colgate	+10.1	136.3	83%	61–62	✓
Northern Iowa @ UIC	-4.9	135.7	32%	78–72	✓
Southern Illinois @ Missouri State	+3.3	126.9	63%	61–57	✗
Boston College @ Notre Dame	+6.0	135.1	71%	84–72	✗
Cornell @ Harvard	-1.1	146.5	47%	89–95	✗
Dartmouth @ Princeton	+12.4	136.1	87%	90–93	✓
Iowa @ Ohio State	+4.5	150.0	69%	77–93	✓
Texas A&M @ Kentucky	+3.7	138.0	70%	67–76	✓
Fordham @ Duquesne	+4.3	140.7	70%	65–58	✗
South Carolina Upstate @ UNC Asheville	+7.8	138.6	82%	58–64	✓
Longwood @ Presbyterian	-9.3	128.2	19%	58–56	✓
High Point @ Radford	+8.0	143.7	82%	80–95	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop	-1.9	134.1	40%	63–61	✓
Central Michigan @ Ohio	+11.2	140.9	85%	68–96	✓
South Alabama @ Coastal Carolina	-1.3	141.0	53%	81–85	✗
Oral Roberts @ North Dakota	-12.7	148.5	15%	84–72	✓
Kansas City @ North Dakota State	+2.1	136.7	65%	75–73	✗
Omaha @ South Dakota	+2.4	139.4	67%	68–84	✓
North Carolina A&T @ William & Mary	+1.0	139.6	55%	90–86	✗
Delaware @ Drexel	+5.3	130.5	68%	74–77	✓
Jacksonville State @ Stetson	+7.8	138.5	80%	81–87	✓
Queens University @ Jacksonville	+0.6	133.4	61%	70–77	✓
Liberty @ North Florida	-11.3	140.8	16%	73–62	✓
DePaul @ Providence	+12.9	152.4	87%	64–75	✓
Nebraska @ Penn State	+7.8	136.1	77%	65–76	✓
La Salle @ Saint Louis	+13.4	149.1	86%	71–84	✓
Akron @ Western Michigan	-8.1	139.9	21%	63–55	✓
Hampton @ Monmouth	+1.1	137.0	42%	83–66	✗
Florida State @ Pittsburgh	+9.3	146.2	83%	71–64	✗
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga	+10.6	140.4	81%	78–62	✗
Marshall @ Arkansas State	-10.6	137.5	19%	87–78	✓
James Madison @ Southern Miss	+0.9	146.0	63%	70–83	✓
Georgia State @ Georgia Southern	+1.5	131.5	58%	52–58	✓
St. Thomas @ Western Illinois	+1.2	143.6	64%	56–60	✓
Denver @ South Dakota State	+9.2	142.5	84%	61–76	✓
Auburn @ South Carolina	-14.1	133.8	14%	81–66	✓
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Michigan	+0.3	148.5	49%	88–67	✗
Tennessee @ LSU	-13.1	127.3	17%	77–56	✓
Marquette @ Seton Hall	+1.5	141.4	60%	74–53	✗
Baylor @ Oklahoma	-0.5	139.9	33%	62–60	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Jackson State	+7.8	142.1	81%	66–70	✓
Delaware State @ North Carolina Central	+14.0	135.4	88%	55–74	✓
Drake @ Evansville	-13.7	138.3	14%	97–61	✓
Belmont @ Bradley	+6.6	139.7	71%	78–76	✗
Columbia @ Brown	+11.8	139.8	87%	85–97	✓
Florida International @ UTSA	-1.2	145.0	44%	77–72	✓
North Texas @ UAB	+3.5	132.5	50%	63–52	✗
St. Bonaventure @ Loyola Chicago	-2.8	133.6	38%	55–67	✗
Mercer @ UNC Greensboro	+7.2	129.8	78%	48–59	✓
Towson @ Elon	-9.1	132.6	18%	66–62	✓
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside	+0.9	131.3	59%	67–63	✗
Eastern Washington @ Northern Arizona	-4.9	143.4	32%	79–76	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Austin Peay	-3.3	141.8	37%	74–59	✓
Colorado State @ Wyoming	-0.8	143.4	47%	57–58	✗
Norfolk State @ Coppin State	-4.7	148.9	32%	96–65	✓
Morgan State @ Howard	+1.7	147.1	56%	56–88	✓
Nicholls @ McNeese	-3.0	142.6	36%	71–68	✓
Eastern Illinois @ UT Martin	+8.2	143.7	82%	78–91	✓
Tennessee State @ Little Rock	-0.3	147.5	45%	77–89	✗
Morehead State @ Lindenwood	-1.3	136.8	39%	72–63	✓
Maryland Eastern Shore @ South Carolina State	-1.0	146.2	39%	76–70	✓
East Texas A&M @ SE Louisiana	+3.1	144.5	65%	73–79	✓
Southern Indiana @ SIU Edwardsville	+4.0	145.2	72%	82–72	✗
Middle Tennessee @ Louisiana Tech	+1.0	138.1	55%	68–51	✗
NC State @ North Carolina	+5.5	153.2	74%	69–80	✓
Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green	+3.9	154.2	66%	73–83	✓
UL Monroe @ Troy	+10.3	137.0	83%	53–77	✓
Louisiana @ Texas State	-0.5	136.9	44%	60–51	✓
Bellarmine @ Lipscomb	+3.9	131.1	68%	49–69	✓
Northwestern State @ LSU New Orleans	-5.8	148.9	25%	88–65	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Sam Houston	+16.2	150.6	89%	64–83	✓
Campbell @ Charleston Southern	+0.9	139.1	48%	78–76	✗
Florida A&M @ Alcorn State	+11.2	132.8	87%	47–57	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Southeast Missouri State	+4.4	149.5	67%	77–84	✓
Alabama @ Missouri	-6.6	161.9	29%	85–64	✓
Texas @ West Virginia	+2.2	144.8	55%	69–61	✗
Virginia Tech @ Clemson	+3.4	142.4	67%	50–51	✓
Indiana State @ Murray State	+2.0	145.9	69%	73–82	✓
Pennsylvania @ Yale	+8.7	139.3	82%	63–70	✓
UNLV @ Fresno State	-3.2	132.3	37%	63–76	✗
San José State @ Utah State	+11.9	139.6	87%	74–75	✓
Southern Utah @ Seattle U	+2.6	151.6	67%	60–81	✓
Western Carolina @ Samford	+8.6	142.2	81%	65–74	✓
Pepperdine @ Portland	+3.3	160.9	73%	76–91	✓
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Northern Kentucky	+0.8	134.2	60%	54–74	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Davis	+9.2	133.8	83%	63–65	✓
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego	-4.0	143.1	30%	112–110	✓
Texas Southern @ Alabama A&M	-0.1	145.7	41%	70–59	✓
Southern @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-3.2	143.0	39%	55–62	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.