Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | GASO -225 GAST +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +6 | 110 | Won |
| Massey | GASO -3.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.8 (-14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -2.4 (+3.6) | 132.7 (-22.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GASO -1.5 (+4.5) | 131.5 (-21.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -2.2 (+3.8) | 133.0 (-23.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -2.3 (+3.7) | 133.4 (-23.4) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | GAST 66 – 64 GASO |
| Dec 19, 2025 | GASO 90 – 67 GAST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GAST 80 – 71 GASO |
| Mar 1, 2025 | GASO 76 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GAST 82 – 78 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-15 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-9 |
| Away | 3-11 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 65.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#233) | -2.9 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#198) | -0.85 (#266) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#212) | -0.90 (#241) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#194) | 0.446 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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