Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | GAST +105 GASO -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +2 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -0.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (-26.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -0.6 (+1.4) | 146.8 (-16.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -0.7 (+1.3) | 150.4 (-20.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -0.6 (+1.4) | 150.1 (-20.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -0.3 (+1.7) | 148.5 (-18.5) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2025 | GASO 90 – 67 GAST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GAST 80 – 71 GASO |
| Mar 1, 2025 | GASO 76 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GAST 82 – 78 GASO |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GASO 86 – 70 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-12 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.4 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 80.3 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#293) | -6.3 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#287) | -0.66 (#229) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.57 (#280) | -1.14 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.431 (#310) | 0.457 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 64.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
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