Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | GASO +138 GAST -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +16 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -6.7 (+22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -6.2 (+22.2) | 151.5 (+4.5) | 29% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | GAST -4.0 (+20.0) | 148.2 (+7.8) | 38% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | GAST -6.1 (+22.1) | 148.8 (+7.2) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -6.5 (+22.5) | 149.8 (+6.2) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | GAST 66 – 64 GASO |
| Dec 19, 2025 | GASO 90 – 67 GAST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GAST 80 – 71 GASO |
| Mar 1, 2025 | GASO 76 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GAST 82 – 78 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-14 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 74.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 76.4 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#327) | -0.5 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#336) | -0.17 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#326) | -0.25 (#199) |
| RPI | 0.381 (#346) | 0.491 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | GAST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 14.2% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 26.7% |
Game Analysis
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