Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | GAST +110 GASO -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +9 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | GASO -1.2 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -1.2 (+10.2) | 148.4 (+2.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GASO -0.7 (+9.7) | 151.4 (-0.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -1.1 (+10.1) | 149.6 (+1.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -1.3 (+10.3) | 148.8 (+2.2) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | GAST 66 – 64 GASO |
| Dec 19, 2025 | GASO 90 – 67 GAST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | GASO 76 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GAST 82 – 78 GASO |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GASO 86 – 70 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#274) | -5.5 (#254) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#261) | -0.50 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#269) | -0.93 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#258) | 0.491 (#200) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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