Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | GAST -135 GASO +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -4.0 (-0.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -1.9 (+2.1) | 146.0 (+14.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -3.2 (+0.8) | 148.7 (+11.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GAST -2.5 (+1.5) | 150.0 (+10.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -1.6 (+2.4) | 147.4 (+12.6) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | GAST 66 – 64 GASO |
| Dec 19, 2025 | GASO 90 – 67 GAST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GAST 80 – 71 GASO |
| Mar 1, 2025 | GASO 76 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | GASO 86 – 70 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.2 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.7 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#304) | -8.6 (#301) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#308) | -0.40 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.22 (#307) | -0.97 (#240) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#286) | 0.469 (#226) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.5% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 32.5% |
Game Analysis
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