Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UTC -450 ETSU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +16 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -11.1 (-27.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -9.4 (-25.4) | 140.8 (-0.8) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -10.6 (-26.6) | 140.4 (-0.4) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -9.0 (-25.0) | 144.1 (-4.1) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -8.8 (-24.8) | 144.8 (-4.8) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | ETSU 73 – 61 UTC |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ETSU 67 – 66 UTC |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UTC 78 – 71 ETSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTC 71 – 63 ETSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ETSU 85 – 84 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 9-7 | 7-9 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 69.5 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#137) | -5.4 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#183) | -1.93 (#331) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#175) | -2.15 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#158) | 0.403 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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