Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UTC +180 ETSU -218 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +1 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -7.7 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -6.0 (+5.0) | 142.7 (-9.7) | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -5.7 (+4.7) | 140.6 (-7.6) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -6.2 (+5.2) | 141.5 (-8.5) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -6.3 (+5.3) | 142.9 (-9.9) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | ETSU 73 – 61 UTC |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UTC 78 – 71 ETSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTC 71 – 63 ETSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ETSU 85 – 84 UTC |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UTC 84 – 71 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 7-8 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -7.9 (#285) | 3.1 (#123) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#284) | -0.13 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#284) | -0.20 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#287) | 0.494 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.50 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.8% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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