Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -600 UTC +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -14.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -12.3 (-0.3) | 141.6 (-7.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -13.8 (-1.8) | 141.9 (-7.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -12.7 (-0.7) | 144.2 (-10.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -13.9 (-1.9) | 143.6 (-9.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | ETSU 67 – 66 UTC |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UTC 78 – 71 ETSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTC 71 – 63 ETSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ETSU 85 – 84 UTC |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UTC 84 – 71 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 2.9 (#121) | -9.0 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#152) | -1.56 (#304) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#151) | -1.99 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#109) | 0.430 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 21.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 31.1% |
Game Analysis
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