Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UTC -290 ETSU +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -4.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -6.4 (+0.6) | 143.1 (+5.9) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -4.6 (+2.4) | 143.5 (+5.5) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -6.8 (+0.2) | 142.3 (+6.7) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -6.4 (+0.6) | 143.4 (+5.6) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | ETSU 73 – 61 UTC |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ETSU 67 – 66 UTC |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTC 71 – 63 ETSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ETSU 85 – 84 UTC |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UTC 84 – 71 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 12-5 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#122) | 0.9 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.73 (#113) | -0.20 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.85 (#108) | -0.17 (#181) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#99) | 0.491 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 36.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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