Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UTC -350 ETSU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +13 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -8.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+14.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -7.6 (+5.4) | 141.9 (+13.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -7.2 (+5.8) | 141.6 (+13.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -7.1 (+5.9) | 139.5 (+15.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -7.0 (+6.0) | 140.9 (+14.1) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | ETSU 73 – 61 UTC |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ETSU 67 – 66 UTC |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UTC 78 – 71 ETSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTC 71 – 63 ETSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ETSU 85 – 84 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#134) | -2.7 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#108) | -0.11 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#117) | -0.17 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#128) | 0.496 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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