Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UTC -250 ETSU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +1 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -2.9 (-3.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (+27.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -1.0 (-2.0) | 142.0 (+27.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -1.9 (-2.9) | 143.2 (+25.8) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -1.2 (-2.2) | 141.1 (+27.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -1.3 (-2.3) | 142.4 (+26.6) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | ETSU 73 – 61 UTC |
| Jan 22, 2026 | ETSU 67 – 66 UTC |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UTC 78 – 71 ETSU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTC 71 – 63 ETSU |
| Feb 15, 2024 | UTC 84 – 71 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#140) | -1.4 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#121) | 0.11 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#130) | 0.10 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#136) | 0.511 (#151) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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