Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | YALE -275 PENN +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | YALE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | YALE -10.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -8.9 (-1.9) | 141.0 (-8.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -8.7 (-1.7) | 139.3 (-6.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -9.2 (-2.2) | 143.5 (-10.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -9.7 (-2.7) | 144.1 (-11.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PENN 88 – 84 YALE |
| Feb 21, 2026 | YALE 74 – 70 PENN |
| Jan 24, 2026 | YALE 77 – 60 PENN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | YALE 72 – 71 PENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | YALE 90 – 61 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | YALE | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-9 | 17-13 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 9-5 |
| Home | 10-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.3 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#80) | -0.4 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#136) | -0.33 (#203) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.71 (#119) | -0.11 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.522 (#137) | 0.492 (#188) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | YALE | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 77.8% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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