Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | PENN +235 YALE -290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +17 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | YALE -6.8 (-10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (-23.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -4.5 (-12.5) | 150.2 (-13.2) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -6.9 (-10.1) | 148.6 (-11.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -4.7 (-12.3) | 149.2 (-12.2) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -5.7 (-11.3) | 150.9 (-13.9) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PENN 88 – 84 YALE |
| Feb 21, 2026 | YALE 74 – 70 PENN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | YALE 72 – 71 PENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | YALE 90 – 61 PENN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | YALE 76 – 62 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 11-3 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#186) | 8.8 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#185) | 1.64 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#155) | 1.62 (#82) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#164) | 0.601 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 41.4% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 34.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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