Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | PENN +188 YALE -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +14 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | YALE -4.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -4.8 (-9.2) | 139.8 (-1.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -4.3 (-9.7) | 137.5 (+0.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -5.4 (-8.6) | 140.8 (-2.8) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -4.8 (-9.2) | 140.3 (-2.3) | 30% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PENN 88 – 84 YALE |
| Feb 21, 2026 | YALE 74 – 70 PENN |
| Jan 24, 2026 | YALE 77 – 60 PENN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | YALE 72 – 71 PENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | YALE 90 – 61 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 11-3 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 68.9 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#188) | 6.3 (#91) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#258) | 1.51 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#237) | 1.78 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#235) | 0.599 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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