Betting Lines
| Spread | YALE -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | PENN +550 YALE -900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | YALE +29 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | YALE -13.3 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (+2.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | YALE -11.6 (-17.4) | 148.8 (+2.2) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | YALE -11.8 (-17.2) | 147.9 (+3.1) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | YALE -11.0 (-18.0) | 149.3 (+1.7) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | YALE -11.7 (-17.3) | 149.1 (+1.9) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | PENN 88 – 84 YALE |
| Feb 21, 2026 | YALE 74 – 70 PENN |
| Jan 24, 2026 | YALE 77 – 60 PENN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | YALE 72 – 71 PENN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | YALE 76 – 62 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 22-8 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 13-1 |
| Home | 5-8 | 11-0 |
| Away | 3-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 70.9 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#294) | 8.4 (#69) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#275) | 0.88 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#269) | 1.08 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#286) | 0.572 (#59) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 38.8% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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